So Now What?

Net Operating Loss -- The Wrong Story

We've all been treated to the spectacle of Donald Trump's tax issues the past week.  He lost just shy of $1 billion in 1995, and used that loss against subsequent gains.  The talking heads and various surrogates have been flogging his tax avoidance pretty much non-stop.  They need to stop.  It's not the relevant story, if only because it's completely legal.

This part of the tax code is about a hundred years old.  Its purpose is to help troubled companies rebuild and rebound from their difficulties. It has worked pretty well.  It has helped closely held businesses and smaller public companies alike.  I have some understanding of this process.  No one that I know who has had to take advantage has done so happily.  It's not a good thing.  Certainly calling Trump "a genius" for using the NOL is entirely bogus.  You use the NOL because you face catastrophic failure and this is a potential lifeline.  That lifeline may not be available, for example, if your lender won't agree to support you going forward.  Most lenders want to do that but there are some, I won't mention names, PNC, that lack the foresight and intelligence, to understand the benefits of nurturing a business back to health thereby preserving those jobs and fostering that company contribution to the commerce of the nation.  So, getting back on subject, no one is happy about being in the position to generate an NOL.  That Trump now says he wanted to use an NOL is either disingenuous or dangerously manipulative of the tax code.  The thing is, it's legal.  So that's not really the issue either.

The issue is, how the fuck do you lose a billion dollars on a casino?  It's a fucking casino!  In 1995, the economy was booming and Atlantic City was expanding, so blaming the economy for the failure is obviously bogus.  The only way a casino could lose that kind of money is through gross mismanagement.  So the issue here is Donald Trump's business competence.  It appears that he hasn't got any.  Don't be fooled by all the buildings with his name on them, that could be licensing agreements rather than any demonstration ownership.

OLYMPIC PAIN

The first week of the Olympics was entertaining.  Great athletes competing.  But week two is just too much.  I mean horse dancing and Busby Berkeley/Esther Williams 1930's swimming routines, now called synchronized swimming, really?  Give me a break.  And the announcers are just so into these bogus events.  Bob Costas and Ryan Seacrest are bad enough, but listening to breathless announcers describing how this horse is just out of the world, or that water dancer's toenail was just too long stretches my tolerance.  Have you noticed that while we watch these events once every four year, and are entirely unaware of them at any other time, we argue about whether a diver's entry splash is too big.  We haven't a clue, but we all weigh in on everything, like baton passing, who knows about this shit, not us.  We're on the sofa scarfing down Doritos and drinking Diet Coke, we know nothing.  I know that the participants work their tails off to be just so good, and that's admirable, I just don't want to see a bunch of people twirling ribbons around.  They do focus groups for everything, why not test the market for this Olympic thing?  The results would mean the games thing would take about 3 days, less if they limited the track events to just watching events with Usain Bolt, whose worst time was about a nanosecond, I could deal with that.

And then there's the whole sexism piece.  Women's beach volleyball is nothing more than soft core porn.  The men wear pants and shorts and shirts while the women wear stuff that would offend Victoria's Secret, except for the Egyptian team, which wore burkas, probably too far in the other direction to permit peak performance.  Women's gymnastics offers scantily clad teen age girls, maybe just a little creepy, while the men wear shorts and shirts.  The women and men who throw the shot put and the hammer are big enough to scare the crap out me, so they can wear whatever the hell they want, just so they don't come to my house and beat me up.

So Sunday night is the closing ceremony, thankfully.  Simone Biles is the U.S. flag bearer and she earned it.  On Monday we can go back to Netflix, Hulu, Amazon and all the other stuff on my Apple TV, or just watch network reruns and the Olympic coverage nightmares will pass.

Circular Firing Squad

Here is the mountain we liberals have to climb in 2016.  First we must elect a Democratic President.  There is no alternative to this for us to have any hope of preserving the gains we have made and furthering our beliefs in establishing an equitable, fair and just society.  Second, we have to take back the U.S. Senate.  That's how we protect against getting any more Antonin Scalias and build a strong Federal judiciary at the lower court levels to establish a strong bench.  Of the 33 seats up for election this year, 24 are held by Republicans.  In 2014, the situation was reversed and Democrats were more vulnerable.  So we need to work to win as many of those seats as we can.  Finally, all 435 seats in the House of Representative are up for election.  This is where the Republicans have used their effective tactics of grabbing state governments to gerrymander districts and control the House.  In 2014, 58% of the electorate on a national level voted for Democrats, but thanks to gerrymandering, the GOP was still able to increase its hold on the House.  It's unlikely that taking back the House can happen in 2016, but we have to start by winning as many seats as possible, registering as many new voters as possible, and working to elect as many Democrats as we can to state government as possible.  It's a very daunting task.  Anything that distracts us from achieving these goals is a waste of energy and counter productive.

So now come the obstacles.  Scalia's SCOTUS cut the heart out of the Voting Rights Act.  Because they control so many state legislatures and governorships, the Republicans seized the opportunity to enact legislation that has restricted access to the ballot boxes to the elderly, the poor and communities of color.  Their claims that they are just trying to protect the electoral process from fraud has been demonstrated to be bogus.  In person fraud, the kind that their laws "protect" against, is virtually non-existent.  They have created a solution to a problem that doesn't exist.  There are multiple cases working there way through the Federal Courts, packed with Bush 41 and 43 judges, but even if they are successful, it's unlikely to effect this year's election because it will just be too late.

Campaign finance laws, also dealt a death blow by the Scalia SCOTUS, provide an additional boost to Republicans.  While there are Democratic Super PACS and dark money resources, they are not nearly as large as those backing the right wing.  Once candidates have been selected, these resources will spring into full combat mode, whether the candidates want them or not.  One of the problems with these groups is that they are on their own and press their own agendas without any input or message control from either party or any candidate.  They are much more vicious than the parties or candidates because they don't have to face the wrath of the voters but the candidates and parties do.

Finally, for liberals, we have the customary Democratic circular firing squad.  We have all enjoyed and been mortified by the GOP slugfest, and we feel good about the idea that Donald Trump could well be the Republican candidate and he may be the most offensive choice and, therefore, alienate the most voters.  I'll get to that later, but what has also happened is that while our candidates, particularly Bernie Sanders, have refused to engage in that kind of political slash and burn campaigning, their supporters have not.  As a Sanders supporter, my Facebook feed is clogged with vicious and despicable posts about Hillary Clinton.  I am disappointed and disgusted.  As Sarah Silverman pointed out last night on Real Time with Bill Maher, Hillary Clinton was the guy until something better came along.    That's my key point.  I want Bernie to win.  I will vote for him in the Florida primary on March 15, I have donated money to his campaign and there is a Bernie magnet on my car, an act of actual courage here in Collier County Florida.  But I am a realist and a reasonably knowledgeable observer and participant in political life.  I understand that Bernie may not win.  If that happens, I will happily support Hillary Clinton.  I'll even put a Hillary magnet on my car.  I refuse to make the perfect the enemy of the good.  I will exercise my right and obligation as a citizen and vote.  I will vote for candidates up and down the ballot who come closest to my views. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PERFECT CANDIDATE.  Bernie has been wrong on gun control issues.  He voted to protect gun manufacturers and sellers from liability.  That was disgraceful vote and his explanation for having voted that way is, to put it bluntly, horseshit.  But, in most other respects, Bernie closely aligns with my views.

Attacks on Hillary Clinton are fruitless and support the Republicans because negative campaigning always has the effect of suppressing voter turnout and one of the things I have learned over the years is that low turnout elects Republicans.  That's another reason why the GOP has been so aggressive on passing laws that reduce ballot access.  If people stay home, they win.  For thirty or more years, Hillary Clinton has been a favorite punching bag for the right wing.  They have successfully sold the idea that she isn't trustworthy, although there is no proof nor any examples of that of which I am aware.  They keep hurling more slime at her all the time.  Recently it was Benghazi.  They spent $28 million investigating that horrible incident.  At the end of the day, GOP committee chair Trey Gowdy's own committee report said that none of it was true.  Further, it turns out that diplomatic facility security was cut because of the sequester, and we know who was responsible for that.  Some of it was outsourced to private contractors, you know, the kind of people who gave us Abu Ghraib.  We know who has backed outsourcing U.S. military functions don't we?  Then there is the email sham.  Turns out that Condoleeza Rice and Colin Powell did exactly what Hillary Clinton did.  It was legal and established within the State Department.  She never sent any messages that were classified.  Some were classified after the fact recently, but they were not classified when she sent them.  Why was the State Department system so archaic and deficient?  Hey kids, can you say "sequester"?  So after all the right wing has done to trash Hillary, do you really think you are posting stuff that hasn't been circulating in the Fox News orbit for years?  No, you're only making it harder for her to win if she becomes the candidate by spreading the same lies among Democrats, and thereby suppressing voter turnout.  And what does low voter turnout mean boys and girls?  That's right, it means Republicans win.  Is that a smart objective for liberals?  No, it's just stupid and wrong.

What about the dump Trump movement in the Republican Party?  It doesn't mean anything.  Why?  Because after all the fireworks and Romney news conferences, asked if they will support Trump if he becomes the GOP candidate, every one of the Republican candidates and even Mitt Romney, John McCain, Lindsay Graham and the whole anti-Trump crew said yes, they will support him.  So the rest of it is sound and fury signifying nothing.  What about the right wing Super Pacs and dark money groups?  Some will go right ahead and work to elect Trump.  Some will reduce their support for Trump and, with those who will not support him at all, will direct their efforts to state and local races to help cement GOP control at those entry levels, where it provides a strong minor league training system for future right wing candidates.

So now what?  Here's what we must do.  First and foremost, stop trashing the other Democratic candidate.  Our people are closer to what we believe than any of the Republicans.  We need a large turnout. In that vein, second, contact your state and local Democratic Party and find out how you can help register voters, particularly if you live the GOP south, and then help turn out voters on election day.  Third, give money to elect Democrats.  Go online to take back the Senate and take back the House.  Give to your Presidential candidate, Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton.  Fourth, Howard Dean said that if you can't give money, run for office.  Run for town council, run for state assembly, but do something to fill our minor league system.  Fourth, do not sit out the election.  Vote.

We cannot allow the Republicans to win.  We have to fight to prevent their intended roll back of every progressive program enacted since the New Deal.  Fight for us, don't trash us.

The Presidential Sweepstakes Is On. OY!

I know, we're all following the 2016 Presidential race already, so what can my occasionally published blog possibly contribute?  I have no idea, but this is my blog, so join in or move on.

I just want to lay out some observations about elections, Presidential elections above all.  

1. There is no such thing as a perfect candidate.  I don't care which candidate you like, be assured that there are some things about him/her with which you do not agree.  Prioritize  your policy agenda and match that up with the what the candidates have either said specifically, or indicated support or opposition to.
2. Focus on issues not the horse race.  The media love to play with polls, and scandals, and everything that doesn't really matter.  Don't get sucked into their bullshit.  Your vote should go to the candidate who gets positive points for coming closes to your own beliefs.
3. Remember the Otto Von Bismarck's old saw, "Laws are like sausages,  it is better not to see them being made."  The best intentions run into the legislative sausage maker, so your candidate may look great but those policies won't come through the process unchanged.  In fact, most won't come through it at all.  Bismarck also said, "Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable--the art of the next best." In the first quarter of the 21st century in the United States, politics is truly a blood sport, in which compromise is punished more often than not.  It has never been a walk in the park, but it seems to be worse now than at any time during my life.
4. Finally, my own primary concern is who will be appointing Federal judges at every level.  Because of #3 above, this is my top priority.  SCOTUS is always a mixed bag, but the lower Federal courts are the minor leagues and filling them is very important.  Think about it, over the past couple of years, a very conservative court has issued rulings that have made liberals happy and rulings that have made conservatives happy.  Every President wants to tip SCOTUS toward his views, and sometimes they are more successful, and sometimes less.  Earl Warren was appointed by Dwight Eisenhower and he turned out to be quite liberal.  Lifetime appointment releases Justices from the pressures of politics, although some follow their initial agendas anyway, but some do not.  I believe that those who advocate for SCOTUS Justice term limits are simply wrong.  It is true that over the decades, life expectancy has increased so Justices are around for a lot longer, but people are sharper longer too.  In my lifetime, those Justices who are suffering health problems that would impinge on their abilities to serve have tended to resign.  Very few have actually died in office.

So that's my sage (hopefully) advice.  Now, let the games begin.  VOTE FOR STEVENSON/KEFAUVER! Oh wait, that was 1956.

So What's New? Part 2

I felt pretty good about Wednesday's post, but some people have raised specific policy concerns, so I thought, well, it's a cold day, so I'll just jot down a few thoughts about these things.

Let me begin by saying that I watched both McConnell's and Obama's news conferences in their seemingly interminable entirety on Wednesday.  It you watched too, you might have been encouraged by a seeming willingness to get things done.  If you were, you were wrong.  On specific issues, every opening was countered by a "but if..." phrase.

Yesterday's meeting with POTUS and the Congressional leadership was equally uninspiring.

Affordable Care Act: The House of Representatives voted to repeal the ACA like 54 times in the past two years.  The right wing of the Republican Party will be stronger now than it was so we can expect that it will try to repeal the ACA another 50 or so times in the next two years.  The Senate has used the Democratic majority to block those attempts.  That's gone now, so the Senate will hop on the bandwagon, but in a less clear cut way.  McConnell said that he would work to remove the individual mandate, that part of the law specifically upheld by SCOTUS.  POTUS is no fool, he gets that ending the individual mandate would gut the law.  So we can expect to see the veto pen fly into action every time Congress sends a bill trying to weaken and, thereby, kill the ACA.

Immigration Reform: POTUS said that if Congress sends him the bill approved by a large bipartisan majority in the Senate, he will sign it.  He made it very clear that he prefers that approach.     However, he will not wait for that to happen.  He will use his executive authority to take whatever actions he can until the Congress does send him such a bill.  This was a tack that Mitch McConnell likened to waving a red flag in front of a bull.  The House will never support the Senate bill, in fact Boehner refused even to bring it to a vote.   In the next term, even the Senate may not support its own bill because of the changes in personnel in that chamber.  So no immigration reform.

This would be a good time to point out that last winter five red state Democratic Senators asked the White House to delay taking executive action until after the election in order to protect them from the opposition to immigration reform in their states.  The White House complied.  Four of the five lost on Tuesday anyhow, and the fifth is in a runoff that she will probably lose.  In the meantime, Hispanic voters were outraged, and this futile little maneuver cost Democrats Hispanic votes.  To gain any credibility, POTUS will have to take the steps he said he would take last winter.  The GOP will go ballistic and accuse Obama of being a dictator and stepping outside the bounds of his office. There may even be an impeachment attempt or two.  Let's not get too worked up about this.  Obama has used executive orders no more frequently than Bush 43, Clinton and Reagan.  Having said that, you may assume that the Republicans will try to make this a major issue, after all 2016 is coming.

Tax code reform and infrastructure repair and improvement: This is one area where something may happen.  For years Republicans have said that they want to reform the corporate tax code and close loopholes.  Since 2009, the Democrats have tried to get jobs bills that focus on infrastructure repair and improvement.  The stimulus bill in 2009 was too small, but it did create jobs and complete infrastructure work.  The current hope for compromise is centered on the idea that corporate tax changes will be linked to an infrastructure jobs program.  One interesting side note is that during the 2012 campaign, Romney and Ryan talked about closing loopholes but refused to enumerate which loopholes would be closed and now that list will have to be specific.  Will this get done? I think it's possible but a long shot.

Climate Change: Forget it.  These issues are off the table.  James Inhofe, R-OK, is now chair of the  Senate committee that oversees climate change legislation and he is an extreme denier even having written a book that explicitly calls climate change a hoax.  The House has long been a lost cause.  POTUS will continue to use executive orders to do what he can, but nothing major can be done without Congressional approval and that's just not going to happen.  Some folks have expressed astonishment at the Republican denial of climate science.  They just haven't been paying attention. The Republican Party has been bought and paid for on climate issues.  Mitch McConnell is from one of the largest coal producing states, so it doesn't matter what he really thinks, his reelection depends on support of the coal industry.  That's all that has to be said about the subject.

Minimum Wage: Not going to happen.  While the public overwhelmingly supports increasing the Federal minimum wage, and all 5 states with state minimum wage increases on the ballot passed them with very comfortable margins, Congressional Republicans are vehemently opposed.  Joni Ernst, the new Republican Senator from Iowa, has said that she opposes having any minimum wage.  Admittedly while she's far out there, her opposition to increasing the current minimum wage is Republican mainstream thinking.  I'd love to see Congress reduce its pay to the minimum wage for a month and then see how it looks.

Equal Pay for Equal Work:  You must be high!  The Republican attitude here is that women just aren't worth it.  Some go further, like right to the edge of women as possessions of their husbands. There is a plethora of pseudo economic bullshit they and their apologists use to justify what is plainly and simply put bigotry.  But it's just bullshit.

Reproductive Rights:  Gone!  Welcome back to the 1950's!  Apologists for the anti-choice argument say that opposition to a woman's right to choose is based on a deep concern for the lives of the fetuses.  To which I say, CRAP!  The ultimate freedom is control of one's own body.  That's it pure and simple.  

Voting Rights Act: You don't actually think that the same people who have been pushing restrictions on ballot access in those red states are going to do anything at the Federal level that might allow the poor, elderly, and minorities to vote do you?  Get past it.  

I think that hits the high points.  POTUS is on his own, and the Democrats put him there because they tried to out Republican the Republicans.  Obama is too cool by half, and the Democrats are chicken shit.  This is an Administration that has accomplished lots in spite of getting no assistance from the Republicans.  Yet instead of promoting those successes aggressively, POTUS and the Democrats, a terrible name for a rock band, apologized for or ignored them.  They were a party that stood for nothing, just like the Republicans except that the Republicans had something they were very much against and they ran on that anger and opposition.  Additionally, the Republicans learned from the success of the Democrats in running a strong ground game.  They spent relatively little on TV time, leaving that to the outside groups who were happy to spend money on TV, and invested in making sure they got out the vote.  Meanwhile the Democratic ground game was weak.

While I'm disgusted and disappointed by the results, I remember that the Republican Party was ruled dead after the 2008 and 2012 elections, and they came back strong.  So things will turn, they always do.  In 2016, a strong Presidential campaign will lay the foundation for a Democratic renaissance, although the House is probably lost at least until 2020.

I think everyone, friend and foe alike, has been wondering whatever happened to the Barack Obama of the campaigns of 2008 and 2012?  That guy has to step forward again because the Democrats in Congress need someone to lead them.  Left to their own devices they will curl up in the fetal position and whimper quietly under their desks.  

So What's New? Not Much.

To say that I'm disappointed by last night's election results is, of course, an understatement.  But as the campaign unfolded, the result became increasingly predictable.  The Democrats did what they do best, they formed a circular firing squad and started shooting.  They have an incumbent President who has a list of pretty impressive accomplishments.  Instead of embracing and promoting those successes, they ran away in fear.  It's rarely a good idea to abandon your most successful vote getter.  Just ask President Al Gore.  

The process didn't just happen over the past year, but since the President's inauguration.  The Democrats allowed the Republicans to write the story.  POTUS was silent and the party structure, office holders and candidates mimicked his behavior.  The Republicans took the opportunity to fill the vacuum with their patented blend of spin, half-truths and outright lies.  So I'm unhappy, but not surprised.  

The story of yesterday was the nearly complete alienation from the Federal Government by the public.  This is part of the long term strategy of the Republican Party.  If the public loses confidence in the the government, it won't mind turning it over to those who advocate dismantling much of it.  How long term is this strategy?  Well, it started with the lie that Social Security won't last and there is nothing that can be done about it.  It continued with the lie that Medicare would run out of money and there is nothing that can be done about it and continued from there.  Those lies go back to Ronald Reagan who famously coined the pronouncement that the scariest sentence in the English language is "We're from the Federal government and we're here to help you." 

The GOP is very good at framing arguments partly because it is largely unencumbered by the truth.  Frank Luntz, a Republican hired gun, has taught his clients well. The Democrats just aren't very good at this as an organization.   Sometimes individual candidates are pretty good at it, but it's fairly random.  To further enhance their chances of controlling the government, the Republicans have been focusing on state government, which is where the action is.  As they took over states they took steps to insure their continued success, so they drew favorable district maps and then enacted voter restriction laws to protect us from in person voter fraud, something that doesn't happen.  As an example, Texas has the most restrictive voter ID law.  But since 2000, out of roughly 21,000,000 votes cast  in Texas there have been exactly 2 documented cases of in person voter fraud.  The judiciary, the appointment of which is the most important power of any President and Senate, has been packed by Bush 41 and 43, because Democrats have tended to give in to Presidential appointment authority, with Robert Bork being the exception that proves the rule, The Republicans have tended to block judicial appointments by Clinton and now Obama. 

So what now?  Until yesterday, the Congress was largely useless.  Now the Republicans will have to actually govern.  Lewis Black famously said, The Republicans are the party of no ideas, while the Democrats are the party of bad ideas."  Now the GOP will have to come with some actual legislation.  And POTUS will have to sign off on them.  As Mitch McConnell said today the President is the most powerful person in the system.  He has the veto pen, although he has only vetoed 2 bills during his Presidency to date.  Just for comparison, Bush 43 vetoed 12, Clinton 36 and Bush 41 vetoed 29.  These numbers don't include pocket vetoes, of which Obama has had none.  His statement today made it quite clear that he's ready to wield the veto more aggressively if need be.  He's also ready to sign off on reasonable compromises like the bipartisan immigration reform bill that passed the Senate but couldn't get past the Hastert rule in the House.

There will be important areas that won't get the attention they deserve and some areas that will get too much attention and will meet with the veto pen.  Things don't have to remain like this.  There are  Congressional and Presidential elections in 2016, and state elections in both 2015 and 2016.  Get involved and help turn your state to your views.  Howard Dean said that the best thing anyone can do to help promote her/his views is to run for office, town council, state assembly, anything.  Failing that volunteer  and give money.  

The Daily Show talked about the real winner yesterday, money. Click the link to see it, and apologies for the damn ad.  According to the numbers I've seen, the aggregate expenditure for the 2014 mid-term for the parties and their various committees and normal PAC's was an obscene $3 billion.  The overall total, including Super PAC's, and other contributions, including dark money, those anonymous funds enabled by the SCOTUS, will be about $6.5 billion.  It's a number that boggles the mind.  The Presidential in 2016 is on line to garner some multiple of that $6.5 billion.  This is disgusting and as Americans we should all be outraged and committed to finding a way to stop it.

Let me finish with the bright spot.  In many countries, an election like yesterday or any Presidential that changed the party in power would result in rioting in the streets and even lead to civil war.  In the United States, we have enough confidence in our system to understand that we can make change and tolerate opposition rule.  We live under the rule of law.  In spite of its weaknesses and problems, the United States of America is remarkably stable.