So What's New? Part 2

I felt pretty good about Wednesday's post, but some people have raised specific policy concerns, so I thought, well, it's a cold day, so I'll just jot down a few thoughts about these things.

Let me begin by saying that I watched both McConnell's and Obama's news conferences in their seemingly interminable entirety on Wednesday.  It you watched too, you might have been encouraged by a seeming willingness to get things done.  If you were, you were wrong.  On specific issues, every opening was countered by a "but if..." phrase.

Yesterday's meeting with POTUS and the Congressional leadership was equally uninspiring.

Affordable Care Act: The House of Representatives voted to repeal the ACA like 54 times in the past two years.  The right wing of the Republican Party will be stronger now than it was so we can expect that it will try to repeal the ACA another 50 or so times in the next two years.  The Senate has used the Democratic majority to block those attempts.  That's gone now, so the Senate will hop on the bandwagon, but in a less clear cut way.  McConnell said that he would work to remove the individual mandate, that part of the law specifically upheld by SCOTUS.  POTUS is no fool, he gets that ending the individual mandate would gut the law.  So we can expect to see the veto pen fly into action every time Congress sends a bill trying to weaken and, thereby, kill the ACA.

Immigration Reform: POTUS said that if Congress sends him the bill approved by a large bipartisan majority in the Senate, he will sign it.  He made it very clear that he prefers that approach.     However, he will not wait for that to happen.  He will use his executive authority to take whatever actions he can until the Congress does send him such a bill.  This was a tack that Mitch McConnell likened to waving a red flag in front of a bull.  The House will never support the Senate bill, in fact Boehner refused even to bring it to a vote.   In the next term, even the Senate may not support its own bill because of the changes in personnel in that chamber.  So no immigration reform.

This would be a good time to point out that last winter five red state Democratic Senators asked the White House to delay taking executive action until after the election in order to protect them from the opposition to immigration reform in their states.  The White House complied.  Four of the five lost on Tuesday anyhow, and the fifth is in a runoff that she will probably lose.  In the meantime, Hispanic voters were outraged, and this futile little maneuver cost Democrats Hispanic votes.  To gain any credibility, POTUS will have to take the steps he said he would take last winter.  The GOP will go ballistic and accuse Obama of being a dictator and stepping outside the bounds of his office. There may even be an impeachment attempt or two.  Let's not get too worked up about this.  Obama has used executive orders no more frequently than Bush 43, Clinton and Reagan.  Having said that, you may assume that the Republicans will try to make this a major issue, after all 2016 is coming.

Tax code reform and infrastructure repair and improvement: This is one area where something may happen.  For years Republicans have said that they want to reform the corporate tax code and close loopholes.  Since 2009, the Democrats have tried to get jobs bills that focus on infrastructure repair and improvement.  The stimulus bill in 2009 was too small, but it did create jobs and complete infrastructure work.  The current hope for compromise is centered on the idea that corporate tax changes will be linked to an infrastructure jobs program.  One interesting side note is that during the 2012 campaign, Romney and Ryan talked about closing loopholes but refused to enumerate which loopholes would be closed and now that list will have to be specific.  Will this get done? I think it's possible but a long shot.

Climate Change: Forget it.  These issues are off the table.  James Inhofe, R-OK, is now chair of the  Senate committee that oversees climate change legislation and he is an extreme denier even having written a book that explicitly calls climate change a hoax.  The House has long been a lost cause.  POTUS will continue to use executive orders to do what he can, but nothing major can be done without Congressional approval and that's just not going to happen.  Some folks have expressed astonishment at the Republican denial of climate science.  They just haven't been paying attention. The Republican Party has been bought and paid for on climate issues.  Mitch McConnell is from one of the largest coal producing states, so it doesn't matter what he really thinks, his reelection depends on support of the coal industry.  That's all that has to be said about the subject.

Minimum Wage: Not going to happen.  While the public overwhelmingly supports increasing the Federal minimum wage, and all 5 states with state minimum wage increases on the ballot passed them with very comfortable margins, Congressional Republicans are vehemently opposed.  Joni Ernst, the new Republican Senator from Iowa, has said that she opposes having any minimum wage.  Admittedly while she's far out there, her opposition to increasing the current minimum wage is Republican mainstream thinking.  I'd love to see Congress reduce its pay to the minimum wage for a month and then see how it looks.

Equal Pay for Equal Work:  You must be high!  The Republican attitude here is that women just aren't worth it.  Some go further, like right to the edge of women as possessions of their husbands. There is a plethora of pseudo economic bullshit they and their apologists use to justify what is plainly and simply put bigotry.  But it's just bullshit.

Reproductive Rights:  Gone!  Welcome back to the 1950's!  Apologists for the anti-choice argument say that opposition to a woman's right to choose is based on a deep concern for the lives of the fetuses.  To which I say, CRAP!  The ultimate freedom is control of one's own body.  That's it pure and simple.  

Voting Rights Act: You don't actually think that the same people who have been pushing restrictions on ballot access in those red states are going to do anything at the Federal level that might allow the poor, elderly, and minorities to vote do you?  Get past it.  

I think that hits the high points.  POTUS is on his own, and the Democrats put him there because they tried to out Republican the Republicans.  Obama is too cool by half, and the Democrats are chicken shit.  This is an Administration that has accomplished lots in spite of getting no assistance from the Republicans.  Yet instead of promoting those successes aggressively, POTUS and the Democrats, a terrible name for a rock band, apologized for or ignored them.  They were a party that stood for nothing, just like the Republicans except that the Republicans had something they were very much against and they ran on that anger and opposition.  Additionally, the Republicans learned from the success of the Democrats in running a strong ground game.  They spent relatively little on TV time, leaving that to the outside groups who were happy to spend money on TV, and invested in making sure they got out the vote.  Meanwhile the Democratic ground game was weak.

While I'm disgusted and disappointed by the results, I remember that the Republican Party was ruled dead after the 2008 and 2012 elections, and they came back strong.  So things will turn, they always do.  In 2016, a strong Presidential campaign will lay the foundation for a Democratic renaissance, although the House is probably lost at least until 2020.

I think everyone, friend and foe alike, has been wondering whatever happened to the Barack Obama of the campaigns of 2008 and 2012?  That guy has to step forward again because the Democrats in Congress need someone to lead them.  Left to their own devices they will curl up in the fetal position and whimper quietly under their desks.  

So What's New? Not Much.

To say that I'm disappointed by last night's election results is, of course, an understatement.  But as the campaign unfolded, the result became increasingly predictable.  The Democrats did what they do best, they formed a circular firing squad and started shooting.  They have an incumbent President who has a list of pretty impressive accomplishments.  Instead of embracing and promoting those successes, they ran away in fear.  It's rarely a good idea to abandon your most successful vote getter.  Just ask President Al Gore.  

The process didn't just happen over the past year, but since the President's inauguration.  The Democrats allowed the Republicans to write the story.  POTUS was silent and the party structure, office holders and candidates mimicked his behavior.  The Republicans took the opportunity to fill the vacuum with their patented blend of spin, half-truths and outright lies.  So I'm unhappy, but not surprised.  

The story of yesterday was the nearly complete alienation from the Federal Government by the public.  This is part of the long term strategy of the Republican Party.  If the public loses confidence in the the government, it won't mind turning it over to those who advocate dismantling much of it.  How long term is this strategy?  Well, it started with the lie that Social Security won't last and there is nothing that can be done about it.  It continued with the lie that Medicare would run out of money and there is nothing that can be done about it and continued from there.  Those lies go back to Ronald Reagan who famously coined the pronouncement that the scariest sentence in the English language is "We're from the Federal government and we're here to help you." 

The GOP is very good at framing arguments partly because it is largely unencumbered by the truth.  Frank Luntz, a Republican hired gun, has taught his clients well. The Democrats just aren't very good at this as an organization.   Sometimes individual candidates are pretty good at it, but it's fairly random.  To further enhance their chances of controlling the government, the Republicans have been focusing on state government, which is where the action is.  As they took over states they took steps to insure their continued success, so they drew favorable district maps and then enacted voter restriction laws to protect us from in person voter fraud, something that doesn't happen.  As an example, Texas has the most restrictive voter ID law.  But since 2000, out of roughly 21,000,000 votes cast  in Texas there have been exactly 2 documented cases of in person voter fraud.  The judiciary, the appointment of which is the most important power of any President and Senate, has been packed by Bush 41 and 43, because Democrats have tended to give in to Presidential appointment authority, with Robert Bork being the exception that proves the rule, The Republicans have tended to block judicial appointments by Clinton and now Obama. 

So what now?  Until yesterday, the Congress was largely useless.  Now the Republicans will have to actually govern.  Lewis Black famously said, The Republicans are the party of no ideas, while the Democrats are the party of bad ideas."  Now the GOP will have to come with some actual legislation.  And POTUS will have to sign off on them.  As Mitch McConnell said today the President is the most powerful person in the system.  He has the veto pen, although he has only vetoed 2 bills during his Presidency to date.  Just for comparison, Bush 43 vetoed 12, Clinton 36 and Bush 41 vetoed 29.  These numbers don't include pocket vetoes, of which Obama has had none.  His statement today made it quite clear that he's ready to wield the veto more aggressively if need be.  He's also ready to sign off on reasonable compromises like the bipartisan immigration reform bill that passed the Senate but couldn't get past the Hastert rule in the House.

There will be important areas that won't get the attention they deserve and some areas that will get too much attention and will meet with the veto pen.  Things don't have to remain like this.  There are  Congressional and Presidential elections in 2016, and state elections in both 2015 and 2016.  Get involved and help turn your state to your views.  Howard Dean said that the best thing anyone can do to help promote her/his views is to run for office, town council, state assembly, anything.  Failing that volunteer  and give money.  

The Daily Show talked about the real winner yesterday, money. Click the link to see it, and apologies for the damn ad.  According to the numbers I've seen, the aggregate expenditure for the 2014 mid-term for the parties and their various committees and normal PAC's was an obscene $3 billion.  The overall total, including Super PAC's, and other contributions, including dark money, those anonymous funds enabled by the SCOTUS, will be about $6.5 billion.  It's a number that boggles the mind.  The Presidential in 2016 is on line to garner some multiple of that $6.5 billion.  This is disgusting and as Americans we should all be outraged and committed to finding a way to stop it.

Let me finish with the bright spot.  In many countries, an election like yesterday or any Presidential that changed the party in power would result in rioting in the streets and even lead to civil war.  In the United States, we have enough confidence in our system to understand that we can make change and tolerate opposition rule.  We live under the rule of law.  In spite of its weaknesses and problems, the United States of America is remarkably stable.